CA$HOUT REPORT for UFC UFN 120 “Poirier vs Pettis”

From the top of the marquee, Ultimate Fight Night: Poirier vs Pettis presented a Lightweight division homecoming dance of sorts with a perennial contender and a former lightweight champion, both of whom have recently sojourned to 145 Lbs land of killers.

The Book saw Poirier vs Pettis as an evenly matched contest with either winning at 1.90 even.

Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier has earned perhaps deservedly so, a reputation as underachiever since losing three main event tilts in his career. Two of those losses were title eliminators at 145 Lbs against the “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung and Conor McGregor. His third and most recent main event loss came at the hands of Michael Johnson at lightweight.

In the other corner, Anthony Pettis whose claim to fame include being an absolute boogeyman to Benson Henderson –shattering both of his lightweight world title reigns (in WEC and UFC) and making him the butt of the “Showtime kick” highlight reels– has been a man in search of himself lately. Pettis is 2-4 since losing the lightweight title to Rafael Dos Anjos in 2015. The swag which he exuded in the early parts of his career has almost completely dissipated from his game.

The Diamond dispatched Showtime in what was ruled a TKO. The match ended awkwardly in the third round when Pettis tapped from an apparent rib injury when Poirier achieved full-mount. Following the match, Poirier claimed he could feel Pettis’ will breaking during the fight.

• Dustin Poirier winning via TKO (Odds: 2.75)
• Dustin Poirier winning in Round 3 (Odds: 11.00)
• Dustin Poirier winning via TKO in Round 3 (Odds: 17.00)
• Dustin Poirier vs Anthony Pettis ending in Round 3 (Odds: 7.00)

The Upsets

There were a trio of upsets on the card with decent odds to win outright. Nothing out of the ordinary here. Out of 12 fights, a 25% underdog winning ratio provides knowledgeable bettors with parlay options.

• Jake Collier over Marcel Fortuna (Odds: 3.00)
• Nina Anseroff over Angela Hill (Odds: 2.62)
• Andrei Arlovski over Junior Albini (Odds: 3.50)

All upsets parlay (3-way): 27.51

In retrospect, Andrei Arlovski picking up the win against Junior Albini should’ve been a darkhorse pick. The Albini winning odds were based on the Brazilian heavyweight’s 10-fight win streak involving mostly no-names from the Brazilian fight scene and Timothy Johnson. The sample is simply too small to assess fairly. To be frank, the Pitbull was on a five-fight skid prior to last night so that precipitated the skewing of odds even further. One thing to consider however is that the former UFC Heavyweight champion has come back from a similar soul-crushing skids in the past. Considering his historical pattern of bouncing back from these types of losing streaks, it would’ve been wise to leverage his winning outright odds (3.50) in a low-risk parlay.

The Big Hits (Odds >= 4.00)

Here are the biggest props and markets that hit their target last night:

• Jake Collier winning via Decision (Odds: 6.50)
• Nina Ansaroff winning via Decision (Odds: 4.50)
• Clay Guida winning in Round 1 (Odds: 9.00) / winning via TKO (Odds: 4.50)
• Raphael Assuncao winning in Round 3 (Odds: 17.00)
• Andrei Arlovski winning via Decision (Odds: 9.50)
• Dustin Poirier winning in Round 3 (Odds: 11.00) / winning via TKO in Round 3 (Odds: 17.00)
• Dustin Poirier vs Anthony Pettis ending in Round 3 (Odds: 7.00)

All Decisions Parlay (3-way):

Jake Collier via DEC (6.50) x Nina Ansaroff via DEC (4.50) x Andrei Arlovski via DEC (9.50) = 277.88

The Biggest Payout Parlay (3-way):

Raphael Assuncao winning in Round 3 (Odds: 17.00) x Dustin Poirier winning via TKO in Round 3 (Odds: 17.00) x Andrei Arlovski winning via Decision (Odds: 9.50) = 2745.50

The biggest potential payout of the night would’ve been for 3-way parlay with an odd of 2745.50.

UFN120 Betting Odds and Hits (Source: Bet365.com)

UFC UFN120 Odds